We have already covered this topic in the context of immigration, with 69% of the respondents thinking that immigration could increase the threat of terrorism. How many people think that terrorist attacks similar to that in Paris could happen in their countries? According to 36%, it is very likely that a terrorist attack like the one in Paris last November will happen again in some form. Another 51% think that another attack is somewhat likely, and only 13% think that another terrorist attack is not likely at all.
Each country show different levels of fear related to the potential threat, but on average 36% of Europeans think that it is very likely that an attack similar to the terrorist attack in Paris can happen, while 51% find it somewhat likely. From these answers three categories are evident. The first group comprises countries which have already suffered terrorist attacks and feel very threatened: France, Belgium and the UK, with the percentages rating the risk as high 62% for France and 53% for each of the other two. At the other end of the scale are those countries where a large percentage feel that they are not threatened by terrorist attacks at all: Estonia (56%), Finland (48%), Hungary (45%), Romania (38%) and Slovakia (39%). A third group of countries feel somewhat threatened.
Citizens feel that the threat of terrorism is directly connected to the influx of immigrants, with 65% of the respondents agreeing with the statement that the migrant wave increases the threat of terrorism in their country. As with the previous question the number of those who did not answer was low (1%).
Luxembourgers disagreed the most with the statement that the immigration wave is increasing the threat of terrorism: most of them (54%) do not share this view. As with the previous question, 50% of the Spanish respondents agreed with this statement. People are concerned the most about the increased threat of terrorism in Latvia (88%). A higher share of the population are concerned in Bulgaria (80%), the Czech Republic (84%), Estonia (84%), Hungary (85%), Lithuania (85%), Romania (80%) and Slovakia (81%).
ISIS claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks, so the assessment of the Islamic State gaining ground was also an important part of our research. We asked the respondents how much of a threat they felt that the Islamic State will pose in Europe over the next five years. In response, 91% of the respondents felt that the Islamic State will pose a threat to Europe to some extent: 61% thought it will be a very serious threat and 30% thought that it will be a somewhat serious threat.
Romanian and Croatian respondents are the least concerned about the Islamic State gaining ground in the next five years, although 79% of Croatians and 74% of Romanians think that the terrorist organization will be a threat to a certain extent. It is the Finns, the Maltese, the Cypriots, the Baltic countries, Italy and Bulgaria who are most concerned that the organization will be a threat in the future.